The Egg Bowl is a huge rivalry game that's back on Thanksgiving and I'm thankful for that. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings and we are catching Miss State as a 4.5 dog and I'm thankful for that. This is a hang over game for Ole Miss who just lost to Missouri on Saturday. Normally when teams suffer big losses they don't have to play 5 day later that's something that comes out of the NFL. Although they don't have to travel they still have to go on the road and that's a very challenging spot for a college team. Miss State is going to have much more energy on a very cold night that better suits their game plan. They are also playing for a bowl game because they are 5-6 while Ole Miss is 7-4. This is the exact opposite case as last year and we saw a Miss State that came out flat, already in a bowl game against an Ole Miss team fighting for a bowl game.
Ole Miss has definitely put themselves back on the map with an exciting offense and a top tier recruiting class. Bo Wallace at QB has been great, but I'm still not sold on him on the road. He's got a 118 QB rating on the road to his 161 at home this year and that's nothing new as he has a 122 on the road last year compared with 160 at home. Ole Miss needs to pass to move the ball and MIss State's secondary has been very good only allowing a QB rating of 119 at home. Throw in the fact that it will be in the 20's and Ole MIss struggled or at least let the weather bother them with drops in last weeks game. I'm just not sold on this offense putting up 30 or 40 points on the road and if they do their defense...
Is very small up front allowing over 5 yards per carry in conference play. They have no talent in the front 4 with solid linebackers behind them. That won't get it done against a run first team like Miss State which has been able to run the ball well. Even though they don't know who they will start at QB. I think that throws more question marks at Ole Miss who will be challenged to put together a defensive game plan. Either way Miss state should be able to run the ball as they are averaging 4.82 yards per carry in conference play and they have played all the big boys including Auburn, LSU, Bama, South Carolina and A&M and in non conference play they played the best out of the Big 12 in Oklahoma State who are 18th in the country vs. the run. To go along with that Miss State has been better offensively in the red zone and that's because they can run the ball. They are also better in third down defense allowing just 28% conversions at home, TO margin and many other key categories.
This is a huge rivalry and very big in state recruiting battle that Ole Miss won last year. I think it will be a big statement for Miss State to win this game so they can say they have won 4 out of the last 5.
